Think Creative - Issue 6

varies among high-migration municipalities in light of their unique economies and the other challenges residents face. In Creative’s survey of individuals in San Pedro Sula, 30 percent of respondents said they make less than $400 a month and are unable to make ends meet. Nearly two-thirds of respondents said they had worried about having enough food for everyone in their household in the previous month. For Marisol, a lifetime of economic hardships led her to conclude that migration is her best option. She and her husband have decided that someday soon they will travel as a family north to seek asylum in the U.S. Pastor Arnold Linares has knownMarisol since she was a young girl, when her community was devastated by flash flooding and his church responded with aid. Linares says unemploy- ment is a crisis throughout Rivera Hernandez, and many people depend on selling food, small

Edgar, 28, has struggled to make a living from agricultural work and generate enough income to meet the basic needs of his wife and two young daughters (right) in La Libertad, Guatemala. He left home for the U.S. in late 2018 but was deported.

motivation behind migration,” Leon says. “With the study, however, we have been able to pinpoint the specific conditions that are the strongest indicators, and we can tailor our development programs to address them on a local level.” The three factors that were found to most sig- nificantly influence migration, Leon explains, were unemployment, a pessimistic outlook on a household’s economic future, and making less than $400 a month and not being able to make ends meet. Across Honduras, 65 percent of people surveyed by Creative who have considered migrating believe their household is worse off economically than it was the previous year. Creative’s analysis found that having a negative outlook on a household’s economic situa- tion makes Hondurans 1.5 times as likely to migrate. However, the impact of these factors

gravely ill, and Marisol had to return home to be by his side. Back in Rivera Hernandez, with her son re- covered, Marisol doesn’t think she can bear to leave her children again, but she also doesn’t see a future for them in Honduras. Marisol’s story is not unusual. According to Creative’s study into factors driving irregular migration, economic factors are the primary motivation of migrants to the U.S. Creative’s Economic Growth Senior Associate Rene Leon Rodriguez says a weak regional economy and shortage of stable, formalized jobs prevent many families from being able to cover their most basic needs and puts upward mobility out of reach. “We know that across the region, even when a household is facing a myriad of other issues, economic factors are often the underlying

Economics at a glance

Believing the economic situation will worsen differentiates those who intend to migrate from those who do not. See the differences in Figure 1 .

“Families facing unemployment or economic hardship with little hope that things will improve are more likely to decide that migrating to the United States is the only possible recourse for their family.”

– Rene Leon Rodriguez Economic Growth Senior Associate

16 | Think Creative | Fall 2019